Zhengbang Technology (002157) Quarterly Report Comment: Productive Biological Assets Momentum + 45% The Company Ushers in a Rapid Profit Release Period
Event: The company disclosed three quarterly reports. The company achieved revenue of 175 in the first three quarters.
64 ppm, at least -0.
12%, realized net profit of 50.25 million yuan, +42 a year.
90%; of which 61 in the third quarter alone.
88 trillion, +15 for ten years.
37%, net profit attributable to mothers3.
25 trillion, +43 for ten years.
The company’s productive biological assets were + 45% month-on-month, returning to the path of expansion.
During the reporting period, due to the sharp increase in pig prices, the company’s profit growth increased significantly.
In the third quarter alone, the company’s listing volume reached 140.
At 280,000 heads, the average domestic hog sales price has further increased, which has become the core factor for the company’s profit growth.
In the third quarter, the company’s sow production capacity expanded rapidly, and its productive biological assets reached 18 at the end of September.
1.3 billion, an increase of 44.
69%, the sow inventory reached 65.
30,000, of which 35 can breed sows.
20 thousand heads, the number of reserve sows reached 30.
It is estimated that by the end of December, the sow inventory will reach 1.2 million heads, of which 500,000 can be multiplied.
According to the company’s current sow expansion rate, we expect the company’s slaughter scale to reach 9 million heads in 2020, an earlier rapid growth.
The price of pigs continued to increase, and the company ushered in an accelerated period of profit release.
After the National Day, pig prices continued to rise. According to the data of the pig network, as of October 23, the average national pig inventory price was 40.
84 yuan / kg, compared with 28 on October 1.
52 yuan / kg, up 12.
32 yuan / kg, an increase of 43.
According to the current price, the average profit per head of fat pigs is expected to be about 1500-2000 yuan. We expect the price of live pigs to continue to increase, and the company will usher in an accelerated period of profit release.
In September, the number of sows could fall by 2 from the previous 重庆耍耍网 month.
8%, the high prosperity of the pig industry is expected to continue for 2-3 years.
In September, the number of fertile sows in the country dropped by 2 from the previous month.
8%, a drop of 38 per night.
At 9%, the pig inventory decreased by 3% month-on-month and 41% in one year.
And according to the data from Yongyi Consulting, in September, the sow population in Northeast China increased by 1 compared with the previous month.
26%, which has been a positive month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, and the breeding sow stock in North China has increased by 1 month-on-month.
83%, three consecutive months of positive growth.
In our judgment, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the changes in the sow inventory in the country can continue to decline, which determines that the cycle of price increases in this round of pigs is extremely long, and the high profit period of the industry is expected to extend as long as 2-3 years.
The company estimates the current market value corresponding to the relative error and the market volume in 2020. The company’s average market value is only 4,211 yuan, while Wen’s and Makihara’s shares are 7,780 and 12,081, respectively. The company’s estimated value. Affected by the “Buy” rating, we reduced the company’s listing volume in 19-21, raised production costs in 19-21, and significantly increased the listing price, thereby reducing the company’s profit from 2019 to 2021.
9.6 billion adjusted to 21.
05 ‰, the 10-year average of 1018% / 499% / 14%, corresponding to the closing market value of PE on October 23 were 18.
8 times, continue to give “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price is lower than expected; the epidemic is catastrophic;