Tongce Medical (600763): Clear Growth Path Oral Chain Leader Enters New Era

Tongce Medical (600763): Clear Growth Path Oral Chain Leader Enters New Era
Core viewpoints: 1. The trend of upgrading of oral medical consumption is obvious, and the penetration rate of orthodontic implants is rapidly increasing. It is expected that the market size will reach 100 billion yuan, which will drive the rapid expansion of the overall market; 2. The company’s high growth performance can be achieved.The provincial compound revenue growth rate is expected to reach more than 30%; 3, Tongce Group and the National University of Science and Technology to build a new brand of Cunji, shares in funds to cultivate six large-scale dental hospitals in vitro, as the company’s national expansion foundation. The gap between supply and demand is large, and private oral cavity ushers in development potential.1) On the demand side, the incidence of dental diseases is on the rise, and the accelerated aging process will drive the incidence to rise further.Per capita medical consumption expenditure accounts for 6% of disposable income, the growth rate is faster than income growth, and national health care awareness has risen.2) On the supply side, private stomatological hospitals have continued to increase and expanded by a total of 80%.With the increase in access to oral medical services, the rate of consultations has increased significantly.The multiple advantages of private oral cavity, such as scale, technology, and service, are expected to develop at a compound growth rate of about 20%. Consumption upgrade 北京夜网 trend is obvious. Orthodontic implantation has led to rapid expansion of the oral medical market.Compared to South Korea, the key features of the already-growing dental implant market in developing countries are: rising national income, falling implant prices, and growing dental implants.At the same time, the rise of aesthetic awareness will drive the development of orthodontics. The penetration rate of implants and orthodontics is expected to increase rapidly. It is estimated that the size of each market can reach 100 billion yuan, about three times the existing volume, which will drive the overall oral medical marketExpansion.The current oral medical market size is approximately 113.5 billion, and the overall market size can reach 300 billion over a ten-year period. The company, as a leading private dental chain, directly 武汉夜网论坛 benefits from the rapid development of the industry. High growth and feasibility, in the next five years, the revenue in Zhejiang Province is expected to reach a compound growth rate of more than 30%.1) At present, the general branch model has entered the harvest period. The profit of the three core hospitals in Hangkou, Chengxi and Ningkou tends to be better. The branch’s brand power has accelerated, and the endogenous growth has entered a virtuous circle.2) The implant doubling plan will be launched in 2020, aiming at the low-end implant market, and the goal is to double the number of dental implants year by year.3) Dandelion plans to set up 100 branches in the province within 3-5 years. Depending on the existing brand and talent advantages, the branch is expected to be at 1.Within 5-2 years, it can quickly realize the breakeven, and it is expected to contribute no less than 3 billion in revenue to the company as a whole.Taking into account, the company’s compound growth rate in the next five years is expected to reach more than 30%. Cultivate a new brand of Cunji in vitro and expand the foundation for national expansion.The United Nations University of Science and Technology’s creation of the “Tianji” brand will help the company to further build high barriers in the two dimensions of talent training and brand building, enhance the ability of dental hospitals to replicate across regions, and enable the company to compete for a long time.The company’s shareholding fund invests in six large-scale deposit hospitals of Stomatology, with a scale of benchmarking with Hangkou General Hospital. Through in vitro industrial fund cultivation and construction, it will be injected into listed companies after profit or when the time is ripe, effectively reducing short-term risks, and long-term development space is expected. Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-21.66, 25.30, 32.650,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.19%, 28.66%, 29.05%, net profit attributable to mother 4.47, 5.95, 7.8.3 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.56%, 33.24%, 31.58%, corresponding to an EPS of 1.39, 1.86, 2.44.At present, the company correspondingly corresponds to 78 times PE in 2019 and 59 times PE in 2020. Considering that the company is a private dental medical leader, it aims to directly benefit from the rapid expansion tolerance of the industry and obtain high-growth alternatives. For the first time, it is given a “buy”Rating. Risk reminder events: The expansion of the stomatological hospital is less than expected, the promotion of the planting doubling plan is less than expected, the risk of medical accidents, and the market size calculation is based on certain assumptions, and there are risks that are less than expected.

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