Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company comment: steady growth in growth rate

Antarctic e-commerce (002127) company comment: steady growth in growth rate

Event: Antarctic e-commerce authorized brand products GMV of 168 in the first three quarters of 2019.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 59 in ten years.

5%; operating income of 26.

47 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

4%.

The company’s headquarters revenue is 6.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

4%, net profit attributable to the parent is 5.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.

2%.

This kind of steady growth, Antarctic people’s dominant category market share ranked first.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the GMV of Antarctic / Cartier / Classic Teddy products reached 145.

21/20.

08/1.

49 ppm, an increase of 65 in ten years.

02% / 37.

08% / 54.

45%, the influence of Antarctic people’s main brand has further increased.

The GMV of Ali / Jingdong / Pinduoduo / Vipshop will be 111.

36/26.

59/21.

53/7.

46 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.

93% / 36.

49% / 131.

78% / 198.

79%; Ali platform accounted for 66%, still maintaining medium-to-high speed growth.

In the Ali platform, Antarctic people’s underwear / bedding category GMV increased by 52.

04% / 62.

41%, the market share of dominant categories continued to increase, ranking first in subdivided industries.

Monetizing channels and suppliers, the monetization rate continues to decrease.

In order to further increase market share, Antarctic e-commerce offers service fee discounts to suppliers in new categories and fiercely competitive categories, and social e-commerce channels replaced by comprehensive service rates have also developed rapidly.Low company monetization rate.

In Q3 2019, the revenue from Antarctic e-commerce brand licensing services reached 2.

32 ppm, an increase of 42 per year.

5%, monetization of brand licensing services4.

0% compared to the same period last year.

3%.

As of the end of the third quarter, there were 985 Antarctic e-commerce cooperative suppliers, 4,321 cooperative dealers, and 5,559 authorized stores, and the supply chain and channel resources were further optimized. The traffic advantage is outstanding, and the sales rate is significantly optimized.

In Q3 2019, the company’s headquarters revenue was 2.

55 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

1%; time interconnection income is 7.

58 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

4%.

In terms of store operations, the company complied with the e-commerce channel flow rules, an initial large store strategy, and the sales scale increased significantly.

The sales expenses in Q3 2019 decreased by 10.79 million yuan, mainly due to the impact of the decrease in advertising expenditures; the increase rate of sales expense ratio1.

9%, traffic advantage continued to strengthen.

In the third quarter, the management R & D expense rate increased by 0 every year.

4%, mainly due to the impact of business expansion and increasing personnel costs.

The headquarter’s earnings grew steadily.

The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in Q3 20192.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.

6%; the company’s headquarters realized net profit attributable to mother 1.

820,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.

4%, the net profit attributable to the parent is 71.

4%, with steady improvement in profitability.

Investment suggestion: Let the profit channel and supply chain grow steadily, increase market share and give “Buy” rating.

The market for mass consumer goods is vast. The Antarctic e-commerce supply side has accelerated the expansion of categories by its suppliers, and the sales side has improved channel layout and traffic operations to maintain rapid growth and increase the city’s market share.

The profit of Antarctic e-commerce has grown steadily, the superiority of the brand licensing model has gradually become prominent, and the monetization rate has gradually picked up in the long run.

It is estimated that GMV of Antarctic e-commerce authorized products will be USD 324/480/653 trillion from 2019 to 2021, an increase of 58% / 48% / 36% for the whole year; an operating income of 42.

31/53.

06/66.

19 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 26.

19% / 25.

41% / 24.

75%; net profit attributable to mother 11.

69/14.

52/18.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

84% / 24.

27% / 24.

32%.

Assume that Time Connect has exceeded its performance commitments and transformed it into the core business of 2019 Antarctic e-commerce net profit.

19 ppm, Time Interconnect Service1.

5 billion.

Taking into account the company’s historical estimates, the core business of Antarctic E-commerce is given 30 times PE, which is estimated to be 305.

7 trillion, giving 10 times the PE of the time interconnection business, an estimated 15 trillion, the company’s total estimated value in 2019 is 320.

700 million. Risk reminders: (1) the layout of the brand / category matrix is blocked, the brand influence is reduced, the service rate and revenue are reduced; (2) the risk management ability of the factoring business is insufficient, a large number of bad debts 深圳桑拿网 appear, and the cash flow deteriorates;Unsuccessful, relied too much on the Ali platform, and the accelerating advantage of the GMV of the licensed product was outstanding.

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