Ten brokerage strategy: a large amount of funds have been issued at the bottom of the market to re-issue bonds to the stock market
What are the effects of “non-economic events” on investment?
Come to Sina University of Finance, and listen to Jiang Xianwei, the chief market strategist of JPMorgan, who gradually integrated investment analysis. CITIC Securities: In February, the “golden pit” was gradually cleared at the bottom of this year, and the market focus shifted from epidemic pulse to epidemic evolution andResumption of work after the holiday.
The breakthrough determines the core of the market’s short-term risk appetite. The epidemic situation is still the core, and under the pressure of the return journey (Jin Qilin analyst), the epidemic situation in non-Hubei region has become the focus; instead, the progress of post-holiday resumption may lead to the revision of fundamental expectations.
As the process of resumption of work is positively related to the epidemic pressure, the specific development needs to be carefully observed.
The “golden pit” in February is the bottom of the market in 2020.
First, the one-time pulse impact of the epidemic on the market and fundamentals has gradually become a consensus; second, behind the short-term change is the timely and comprehensive expected management of policies; again, loose macro liquidity accumulates, and it is difficult to repeat in the short term; finally, “The risks of “two financings” and equity pledge are controllable, and the risk of forced selling is low.
Combine the evolution of the epidemic to grasp the pace of deployment and focus on the targets that are beneficial to resumption of work.
In consideration of the impact of the epidemic, we have sorted out the opportunities and rhythms of A-share allocation in 2020, which specifically include three categories: the main line of transition; trading opportunities before the mitigation of the epidemic; the types of positions that can be gradually built after the mitigation of the epidemic; and the related investment portfolio.
It is suggested that 淡水桑拿网 while seizing the transaction-type opportunities brought by the epidemic, you can also pay attention to the sub-sectors with a faster return to work.
Haitong Securities: Firmly confident, the bull market’s three waves rose and postponed① Due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia, corporate profit was expected to rebound after bottoming in 19Q3, and now it has turned into a second bottom in 20Q1 before picking up again.
② The market’s short-term slump space is relatively sufficient. It needs time to consolidate and wait for the epidemic to be controlled and subsequent fundamental data to support it.
③ To strengthen confidence and maintain patience, the structural market during the consolidation period is still active, such as technology, when the bull market finally enters the bull market, the advantages of the securities 杭州桑拿 firm will reappear.
Huatai Securities: The Shanghai Index has been repaired, but it will continue to be tested by the tide of resumption of work. From the perspective of profit forecasts, the benchmark indicators for epidemic prevention and control assume that the growth rate of A-share earnings may still be maintained at about 10%, slightly lower than the market consensus at the beginning of the year.10%?
15%, under the assumption of pessimism, A-share earnings growth may be revised down to less than 5%, but the decline in the previous Shanghai stock index may reflect the earnings expectations under the pessimistic outlook; from the perspective of the external market, the Spring Festival holiday AH premium increase and A50 futuresThe declines respectively imply that the Shanghai stock index makes up for about 6.
3%, and on the first day after the holiday, the Shanghai index fell sharply, and then repaired back to a relatively reasonable line of 2800. From historical experience, during the SARS period, the average retracement of AH shares was about 9%. According to the Shanghai index from mid-January highs,A decrease of 9% corresponds roughly to the 2800 line.
In summary, after the holiday, the A shares have bottomed out, but the subsequent recovery continues or is waiting to pass the test of resumption.
GF Securities: The bottom of the A shares is now available. Beware of changes in the benefit sector. The GF strategy team believes that the industry configuration is easier for medium-term industry logic.
(1) Benefited by short-term events and supported by medium-term industrial logic: media (video, games); b.
Internet medical, online office; c.
IT infrastructure (IDC, server, storage).
(2) The impact of the incident is limited, and the logic is stable in the medium term: a.
Electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors, panels); b.
New energy vehicle industry chain (midstream lithium batteries and components-upstream lithium battery materials-midstream electrical control-electric vehicle); c.
The bottom of the A shares is now available. After the resumption of work, the inflection point of the epidemic needs to be followed in depth to prevent harmonics in the benefited sector.
The downward trend in the discount rate driving the “slow bull on the financial supply side” will not be damaged by the epidemic.
The odds of A shares after the plunge have increased, and the bottom of the shock is now there.
If the improvement of the inflection point after the resumption of work is further clear, the rotation of the A-share industry will return to the middle line along the order of the affected by the epidemic.
Among the beneficiary sectors with higher current gains, pure event-driven strong stocks make up the decline. The sector with medium-term industrial logic will still revert to upward momentum even if it faces certain adjustments. The impact of the event is limited, and the sector with stable medium-term industrial logic will gradually return.
Configuration grasps two main lines: (1) short-term events benefit, and logical support in the medium term; (2) limited impact of the event, and logical stability in the medium term.
Suggested configuration: Internet medical, gaming, new energy vehicles, consumer electronics.
China Merchants Securities: The market is in an upward cycle. The China Merchants strategy team believes that under the impact of the epidemic, the A-shares fell sharply on the first trading day after the holiday, but the release of panic and the relief of market liquidity problems, the market rebounded, and the industry’s performance was divided.
The recent epidemic control data has improved significantly, but the rework tide starting on February 10 has expanded the uncertainty of the epidemic, and it is expected that the short-term market game will intensify.
If diabetes data rebounds, medicines, computers, and media that will be less affected or positively affected by the epidemic will continue to dominate.
If the epidemic is alleviated and the growth is expected to steadily increase, the financial, real estate, construction, automotive and other sectors affected by the policy will increase their attention. This is also the focus of the two sessions. And electronics and 5G construction-related communication fields will dominateFurther, the aviation, hotel and other sectors penetrated by the impact of the epidemic have also tried to usher in the layout of funds.
In the medium to long term, we firmly believe that A shares are in the two and a half upward cycles that will start in 2019. 5G technology blessings and increasing demand for information technology will become the direction in which the technology sector will continue to grow in the coming quarters.
From an estimation point of view, the overall A-share estimate has dropped significantly this week; except for the medical and biological, computer, electrical equipment, electronics, and integrated sectors, which are estimated to have risen in level, the remaining sectors are estimated to have fallen in level; leisure services, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and light industryManufacturing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing are estimated to decline.
Tianfeng Securities: After the epidemic situation has reached a substantial inflection point, counter-cyclical adjustment policies can be gradually implemented. After the epidemic situation has “substantial” inflection point, counter-cyclical adjustment policies (including investment and consumption stimulus) may be gradually implemented.
At least in 2003, the inherent capacity of the traditional economy was insufficient this time. Although there will be stimulus policies in the future, there is limited room for repair in the traditional economic sector, and the extent and continuity of the oversold rebound of related sectors may be reduced.
Among them, the best prosperity trend is the land completion chain in the early stage of recovery. Although it may also be disturbed by 1-2 quarters, from the perspective of endogenous power, it may be the best continuity in the future.
Therefore, in the context of the global 5g cycle, the global semiconductor cycle, and the global cloud computing cycle, the prosperity of the technology industry has spread, and it is difficult to reverse the long-term style due to the high probability.
The traditional economy of at least 2003, despite the short-term interference from the epidemic, but under the endogenous driving force of the technology industry cycle, the new technology field is still gradually changing and determined.
In terms of investment, before the inflection point appears on the “target”, online office, online education, medical information, and games may continue to dominate.
After the epidemic situation really subsides, the main line of the technology sector will return to the 5G industry chain, software security and controllable, cloud services, new energy vehicles and other industries.
New era securities: the emergence of deep V, the short-term impact of the epidemic on emotions has ended the first week after the holiday, the stock market has changed, and the index has gone out of deep V. This trend is relatively rare in the history of A shares.
Deep V is a relatively common transition mode in mature markets, especially when faced with short-term extreme events, this change is very common in US stocks.
Deep V inherently does not represent the bulls and bears of the market, but represents the improvement of the right to speak for long-term allocation of funds.
With the emergence of Deep V, the short-term impact of the epidemic on mood and positions has ended, and the medium- and long-term effects that need to be discussed later.
The index’s further upward momentum on this basis comes from the progress of post-holiday resumption. If the resumption is faster, the progress will still be faster. If the resumption is slow, the vibration will rise upward.
We suspect that it is a concussion.
If based solely on the impact of the epidemic, medicine, games, and computer sectors are the few sectors that benefit from the epidemic, but it is expected that the probability of general rise is already small, and the follow-up will be based on long-term logic to remove the false truth.
After the previously recommended optional consumption opportunities will be greatly expanded, it is expected to wait until the second half of the year.
Which may not be affected too much. The optional consumption is the new energy vehicle sector, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Financial sectors (banks, real estate) can appropriately increase their positions, pre-estimate the advantages, and gradually reverse the policy of stabilizing the economy in favor of these sectors.
Yuekai Securities: Technology stocks led the rebound, and a large amount of funds will be transferred from bonds to the stock market, which will be affected by eventual factors, and the market will adjust.
From an estimation, liquidity and emotional perspective, the rebound after February 4 is indeed proof.
From the perspective of market estimates, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 estimates on February 3 were only about 11 times, at the 35% quantile level since 2011, and the market is estimated to be on the low side.
From the point of view of the cost-effectiveness of stock bonds, the superiority of stock market valuation is more prominent.
At the time of the stock market adjustment, the bond interest rate has continued to fall, and the 10-year government bond rate has fallen by 40bp since late December.
On February 3, the stock-to-bond yield ratio reached 2.
3, back to the level at the end of 2018.
Historical experience shows that once the stock-to-bond yield ratio reaches 2.
5, all mean that the stock market is extremely attractive relative to bonds. From the perspective of capital allocation, a large amount of funds will be transferred from bonds to the stock market.
In the face of short-term oversold rebounds, one should not be taken lightly, and positions should not be overweight.
There are two main lines in the configuration.
One of the main lines, technology and medicine are laid out on the right.
The relative immunity to this incidental factor, with its excellent performance and positive logic, is still the main line of market funds.
Tesla’s industrial chain, panels, Apple’s industrial chain and games are particularly worthy of attention.
The second main line, preset layout consumption and cycle.
Consumption of durable goods and the resumption of manufacturing affected by the impact, short-term performance was affected.
However, incidental factors were brought under control, and the reunion union continued to repeat the shortage demand.
If coupled with the possible counter-cyclical policies in the future, these sectors are driven by demand-compensated recovery.
National Securities: A-stock ammunition accumulation, the “home” economic theme continues to approach potential risk events one by one, such as “Britain ‘s smooth Brexit, the US ‘s impeachment incident is rejected, and the“ new crown pneumonia epidemic ”is likely to increaseThe market is expected to be in a good direction.
In addition, it has supplemented multiple revisions by domestic macro decision-making departments, “further reducing the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises,” and the monetary easing environment remains the same.
A-share ammunition potential, domestic public offering institutions, some securities companies asset management, private equity institutions and employees to subscribe / subscribe for subordinate funds / asset management products with their own funds, boosting investor confidence.
Therefore, the upward trend of the A-share market shock will continue.
Furthermore, from the perspective of historical A-share performance, the first quarter is a critical period for the long-term ranking of institutions. A-shares are prone to agitation, the so-called “spring agitation” market.
Focus on the industry’s two main investment lines.
1) The “home” economy opens up development space, and the emerging consumption model “online +” becomes the tipping point of the demand side “2) Deeply dig the main lines of US stock mapping and configuration in emerging industries, such as” Apple industry chain, electric vehicle industry chain, cloudGames, security and control “.
Guosheng Securities: The medium-to-long-term big logic changes and changes, Slow Bull continues to change and changes, the slow-ox continues, and the core asset revaluation continues.
In the medium and long term, the epidemic situation is a periodic shock. When the epidemic situation stabilizes, the market will still return to its own logic.
Policies continue to be relaxed + countercyclical adjustments are strengthened + medium and long-term funds continue to enter the market, the market has been steadily rising for a long time, and cyclical core asset revaluation will continue.
In terms of investment strategy, the growth of science and technology is the main line of the stage, focusing on science and technology board.
Technological growth: focus on the electronics, electronics, computer and other industries; science and technology board: the conversion of science and technology board continued to expand, heavy storage science and technology board funds more and more, the market continues to increase attention.
The optimistic science and technology board has become an important source of excess income; the core asset of the cycle: policy counter-cyclical efforts continue to increase, and then with the easing of the epidemic and the resumption of production and acceleration of the economy, the economy is back on track.
The cyclical revaluation of core asset values will continue.