Zhengbang Technology (002157): The listing data is slightly higher than expected to embrace the super pig cycle

Zhengbang Technology (002157): The listing data is slightly higher than expected to embrace the super pig cycle

This report reads: The company’s pig breeding scale is expanding rapidly, there is room for improvement in future breeding costs, the feed business is developing steadily, and the product structure is continuously optimized.

Event: The company published data in June: sales of pigs 41.

960,000 heads, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

03%, an annual increase of 4.

49%; sales income 7.

2.7 billion, down 5 from the previous month.

23%, an annual increase of 60.

06%.

Comment: Maintain 北京夜网 overweight.

Maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 0.

96, 2.

85, 3.

46 yuan, giving the industry an average estimated 25 times PE in 2019, maintaining a target price of 23.

95 yuan, maintaining the overweight level.

The company’s listing was in line with expectations.

The company sold 41 in June.

960,000 heads, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

03%, an annual increase of 4.

49%; we calculated an average selling price of 15 based on an average weight of 110 kg.

8 yuan / kg.

We think May-June is the trough for junior company listings. In the second half of the year, the company’s listing attempts will increase steadily, maintaining the company’s forecast of 7 million and 9 million listings in 2019-2020.

Assuming an average profit of 900 yuan in 2020, the corresponding net profit in 2020 will be 81 trillion, and the current market value corresponding to PE is only 5 times.

The pigs are adjusted in place, and the plate is about to usher in the next major rising wave.

We believe that the hog sector is in place, and the main rise of the sector will be ushered in the following, mainly due to: 1) the exit of the previous profit-making disk and the market’s vaccine vaccine, the number of slaughtering and other factors have been reflected in the body, the high-level swap basically ended2) In the future, demand will pick up, and the urgency of supply will become stronger and stronger. How much the previous selling has suppressed the price and how strongly the pig price rebounded in the future. We think that the price may rise above 20 yuan in August.The kilogram is expected to increase. At the same time, the volume of listed companies will increase, and the sector will usher in volume and price.

Wait for the pig price to reach a new high, and double-click on the sharing section Davis.

In the super pig cycle brought by this round of epidemic, listed companies are expected to usher in double-clicked Davis for performance and evaluation: 1) In terms of performance, the average high profit per head is expected to increase from 1,000 yuan to more than 1,500 yuan; 2) In terms of epidemic situationNormalization will speed up the permanent withdrawal of free-range farmers. Listed companies will merge technology and capital advantages, speed up production capacity, and highlight growth attributes that will help increase the company’s size.

After the current round of adjustments, the company’s head market value in 2020 is only 4,800 yuan, which is a very good configuration value.

Risks: The prevention and control of African swine fever is exceeding market expectations.

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